How I Approach Analytic Thinking
The work here starts from a simple observation: most analytic problems aren’t caused by bad data — they’re caused by framing the problem incorrectly. Teams struggle when the wrong construct is measured, when different types of error get blended together, or when methods are applied outside the purpose they were designed for.
These essays explore those upstream issues. They clarify constructs, correct category errors, and examine the systems behind demand, forecasting, and decision‑making. The goal is not more sophistication, but better thinking — the kind that leads to cleaner analytics and stronger decisions.
Can We Stop Trying to Validate Patient Share Against Market Share?
We ask surveys to do things they were never built for. One example: trying to “validate” patient share against market share. It sounds reasonable, but the two measures come from different worlds and behave differently.
I wrote a short piece on what survey‑based demand actually measures, why calibration creates confusion, and how to think about validity in a way that’s more useful for real decision‑making.
If you work with HCP demand data—on either the insights or forecasting side—I think you’ll find it useful.
Demand Assessment with HCP and Patient Samples: A 2026 Perspective
Demand assessment has always been a balance between clinical realism and the need to aggregate it into a credible market forecast. When I first wrote on this topic in 2007 the industry was wrestling with how to incorporate patient-level nuance without collapsing the ability to forecast at the market level. That tension hasn’t gone away — if anything, it has intensified as clinical complexity, data fragmentation, and therapeutic personalization have increased. In this article I articulate a principle that still guides my work today: methodological realism is only valuable when it preserves — rather than obscures — our ability to make reliable market-level predictions.
What Makes For a Good Methodologist?
What sets a methodologist apart from the rest?
In this article, I share some thoughts on what makes a methodologist truly valuable to insights professionals and decision-makers.
